Eurovision 2018 – The Aftermath

Weird year. I try not to gague myself against the final result, because I simply picked my preferences. In a perfect world, Spain won. But there are so many stats on the official site, I couldn’t resist an analysis. I’m happy that I managed to pick 5 of the final 10 (out of the entire competition, mind you).

I like to gague my performance against the Australian Jury Members, and at least beat Richard Wilkins for accuracy. I have a model that shows how closely aligned each juror was to the final result. I’m sad to report we were mostly in agreement, even with our high ranking for Spain and Lithuania. I was particularly wrong about the UK (I said 2nd, Europe said 24th) and Spain (I said 1st, Europe said 23rd). ‘L-Fresh The Lion’ was waaaaay off (putting Cyprus, Czech Republic at the bottom of the list, and Spain at the top). Best performer was Jordan Raskopoulos – generally closest to the final result.

No-one had Israel at number one. Sneaky chicken-folk.

Book1 2018-05-14 21-43-27

Eurovision 2018 – According to Science

Relying on the 100% Accurate, Exhaustive, Methodical process from Mr. Gerbear, I hereby award this year’s #Eurovision points. Australian Jury, you have your marching orders.

As always, this is based on a listen alone; I haven’t seen or heard the televised performances, so if someone bums a note or has a notable bum, I haven’t been swayed. We’re doing science here, people.

Here’s the full list. I’m as surprised as you are about some of the positions. Especially Spain. Am I a tree*?

But not about The Netherlands. The Netherlands’ entry is bad and they should feel bad. Points négatifs.

  • Because trees need sap to live.

UPDATE: Moar science – this suggests my controversial pick of Lithuania at #3 has support in the extant literature. Science!